LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 16
Leganés
LEG
Sabadell
SAB
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leganés43%
Draw28%
Sabadell30%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.21
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession56%
36%Territory38%
21%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.07
6.5%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leganés, 3 for Sabadell. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.