LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 16
Almería
ALM
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería41%
Draw26%
Sporting Gijón33%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.39
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession55%
32%Territory40%
13%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Sporting Gijón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sporting Gijón
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.