LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 16
Almería
ALM
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería45%
Draw26%
Sporting Gijón29%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.26
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–27.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
26%Territory39%
19%From set plays19%
0.14Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Sporting Gijón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 128 matches, not the full season.