LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 15
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Las Palmas
LAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sporting Gijón46%
Draw28%
Las Palmas26%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.05
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession51%
40%Territory43%
27%From set plays39%
0.14Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Las Palmas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sporting Gijón
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.