LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 15
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Las Palmas
LAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sporting Gijón55%
Draw24%
Las Palmas21%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.05
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
39%Territory34%
18%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.11
4.1%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Las Palmas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.