LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 15
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Las Palmas
LAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sporting Gijón54%
Draw25%
Las Palmas21%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.06
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
39%Territory34%
19%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.11
3.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Las Palmas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.