LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 15
AD Ceuta FC
ADC
Almería
ALM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AD Ceuta FC23%
Draw22%
Almería55%
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.06
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
AD Ceuta FC get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession52%
35%Territory32%
40%From set plays13%
0.06Chance quality0.10
3.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AD Ceuta FC, 3 for Almería. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.