LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 15
Burgos CF
BUR
Albacete
ALB
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burgos CF56%
Draw27%
Albacete16%
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.70
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
40%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–017.0%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–012.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession40%
35%Territory37%
42%From set plays38%
0.11Chance quality0.07
9.7%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burgos CF, 3 for Albacete. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.