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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 14

Real Valladolid

REA

Castellón

CAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Valladolid19%
Draw23%
Castellón58%

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.96

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 1–210.0%
  • 0–29.3%
  • 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession57%
37%Territory42%
28%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.14
5.4%Directness3.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Valladolid, 3 for Castellón. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.