LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 14
Tenerife
TEN
AD Ceuta FC
ADC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tenerife56%
Draw24%
AD Ceuta FC20%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.04
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession49%
34%Territory35%
41%From set plays40%
0.10Chance quality0.06
9.1%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tenerife, 3 for AD Ceuta FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.