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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 13

Sporting Gijón

SPO

Real Valladolid

REA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sporting Gijón52%
Draw24%
Real Valladolid24%

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.22

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 2–07.8%
  • 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession51%
39%Territory37%
18%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.11
4.1%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Real Valladolid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.