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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 13

Sporting Gijón

SPO

Real Valladolid

REL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sporting Gijón51%
Draw27%
Real Valladolid22%

Expected goals

1.52 – 0.94

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.5%
  • 1–112.2%
  • 0–09.5%
  • 2–09.5%
  • 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession48%
40%Territory35%
27%From set plays40%
0.14Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Real Valladolid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Real Valladolid

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.