LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 13
Girona
GIR
Almería
ALM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Girona41%
Draw27%
Almería33%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.34
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession45%
37%Territory26%
12%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.14
6.0%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Girona, 3 for Almería. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.