LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 13
Girona
GIR
Almería
ALM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Girona40%
Draw27%
Almería33%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.36
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
38%Territory26%
12%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.14
5.9%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Girona, 3 for Almería. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 129 matches, not the full season.