LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 12
AD Ceuta FC
ADC
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AD Ceuta FC21%
Draw24%
Sporting Gijón55%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.79
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.1%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
35%Territory40%
40%From set plays27%
0.06Chance quality0.14
3.7%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AD Ceuta FC, 3 for Sporting Gijón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sporting Gijón
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.