LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 12
Burgos CF
BUR
Castellón
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burgos CF29%
Draw25%
Castellón45%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.69
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession60%
32%Territory46%
10%From set plays17%
0.17Chance quality0.15
6.0%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burgos CF, 3 for Castellón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.