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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 11

Castellón

CAS

Sporting Gijón

SPO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Castellón58%
Draw23%
Sporting Gijón19%

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.08

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–09.1%
  • 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

60%Possession55%
46%Territory40%
17%From set plays27%
0.15Chance quality0.14
3.3%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Castellón, 3 for Sporting Gijón. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.