LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 9
Almería
ALM
Leganés
LEG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería44%
Draw26%
Leganés30%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.28
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession53%
32%Territory35%
13%From set plays5%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Leganés. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.