LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 8
Almería
ALM
Burgos CF
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería40%
Draw26%
Burgos CF34%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.45
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession54%
32%Territory32%
13%From set plays10%
0.10Chance quality0.17
5.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Burgos CF. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.