LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 6
Almería
ALM
Celta Fortuna
CEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería57%
Draw21%
Celta Fortuna22%
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.34
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession55%
32%Territory39%
13%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Celta Fortuna. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.