Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 26

Real Madrid

RMA

Valencia

VAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid71%
Draw19%
Valencia10%

Expected goals

2.15 – 0.73

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

46%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–013.0%
  • 1–012.6%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 3–09.0%
  • 1–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Real Madrid will have the ball; Valencia will not mind.

52%Possession36%
37%Territory32%
5%From set plays22%
0.17Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Madrid, 3 for Valencia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.