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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 25

Sevilla

SEV

Real Madrid

RMA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sevilla14%
Draw21%
Real Madrid65%

Expected goals

0.88 – 2.05

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–111.5%
  • 0–211.2%
  • 1–29.9%
  • 1–19.6%
  • 0–37.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Real Madrid will have the ball; Sevilla will not mind.

44%Possession52%
41%Territory37%
26%From set plays5%
0.07Chance quality0.17
5.6%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sevilla, 3 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.