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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 24

Villarreal

VIL

Barcelona

BAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Villarreal34%
Draw26%
Barcelona40%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.53

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 2–17.9%
  • 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barcelona will have the ball; Villarreal will not mind.

61%Possession69%
49%Territory52%
16%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.16
4.6%Directness2.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Villarreal, 3 for Barcelona. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.