LaLiga · Matchweek 24
Valencia
VAL
Deportivo Alavés
DEP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Valencia40%
Draw31%
Deportivo Alavés29%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.01
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
36%Possession42%
32%Territory38%
23%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.08
6.4%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Valencia, 3 for Deportivo Alavés. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Deportivo Alavés
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.