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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 23

Real Sociedad

RSO

Real Madrid

RMA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Sociedad21%
Draw22%
Real Madrid57%

Expected goals

1.27 – 2.12

Over 2.5

65%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.7%
  • 1–19.2%
  • 0–17.7%
  • 0–27.6%
  • 1–36.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

60%Possession52%
40%Territory37%
15%From set plays5%
0.11Chance quality0.17
3.4%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Sociedad, 3 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.