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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 22

Rayo Vallecano

RAY

Real Madrid

RMA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rayo Vallecano19%
Draw22%
Real Madrid59%

Expected goals

1.09 – 2.02

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–210.0%
  • 1–19.9%
  • 0–19.7%
  • 0–29.1%
  • 1–36.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

60%Possession52%
44%Territory37%
12%From set plays5%
0.09Chance quality0.17
5.0%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rayo Vallecano, 3 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.