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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 22

Barcelona

BAR

Valencia

VAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Barcelona69%
Draw19%
Valencia12%

Expected goals

2.26 – 0.87

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–011.3%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–18.5%
  • 3–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barcelona will have the ball; Valencia will not mind.

69%Possession36%
52%Territory32%
18%From set plays22%
0.16Chance quality0.12
2.1%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barcelona, 3 for Valencia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.