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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 21

Real Madrid

RMA

Real Betis

BET

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid70%
Draw18%
Real Betis12%

Expected goals

2.35 – 0.93

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–010.6%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 1–18.2%
  • 3–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Real Betis get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession49%
37%Territory44%
5%From set plays24%
0.17Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Madrid, 3 for Real Betis. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.