LaLiga · Matchweek 20
Atlético Madrid
ATM
Real Sociedad
RSO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético Madrid50%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad26%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.22
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession60%
44%Territory40%
9%From set plays15%
0.07Chance quality0.11
4.4%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético Madrid, 3 for Real Sociedad. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético Madrid
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.