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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 19

Deportivo A Coruña

DEO

Rayo Vallecano

RAY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Deportivo A Coruña37%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano35%

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.27

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 0–19.8%
  • 0–08.8%
  • 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession45%
34%Territory36%
7%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Deportivo A Coruña, 4 for Rayo Vallecano.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.