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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 18

Villarreal

VIL

Sevilla

SEV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Villarreal59%
Draw24%
Sevilla16%

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.84

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.7%
  • 2–011.3%
  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Villarreal will have the ball; Sevilla will not mind.

61%Possession44%
49%Territory41%
16%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.6%Directness6.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Villarreal, 4 for Sevilla. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.