LaLiga · Matchweek 18
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Atlético Madrid
ATM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rayo Vallecano32%
Draw28%
Atlético Madrid40%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.39
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession60%
44%Territory44%
12%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.07
5.0%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rayo Vallecano, 3 for Atlético Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Rayo Vallecano
Atlético Madrid
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 109 matches, not the full season.