LaLiga · Matchweek 18
Málaga
MLA
Elche
ELC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Málaga31%
Draw28%
Elche41%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.41
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Elche get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession51%
36%Territory39%
6%From set plays42%
0.09Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Málaga, 3 for Elche. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 109 matches, not the full season.