LaLiga · Matchweek 18
Málaga
MLA
Elche
ELC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Málaga36%
Draw28%
Elche37%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.39
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession52%
37%Territory40%
39%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.4%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Málaga, 4 for Elche.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.