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LaLiga · Matchweek 17

Valencia

VAL

Espanyol

ESP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Valencia32%
Draw30%
Espanyol38%

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.24

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1113.2%
  • 0111.7%
  • 1010.6%
  • 0010.6%
  • 128.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession47%
31%Territory36%
13%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Valencia, 4 for Espanyol.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.