LaLiga · Matchweek 17
Valencia
VAL
Espanyol
ESP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Valencia45%
Draw31%
Espanyol24%
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.84
Over 2.5
34%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.8%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Espanyol get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
36%Possession37%
32%Territory30%
23%From set plays50%
0.13Chance quality0.05
6.4%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Valencia, 3 for Espanyol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.