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LaLiga · Matchweek 17

Celta Vigo

CEL

Atlético Madrid

ATM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Celta Vigo27%
Draw29%
Atlético Madrid45%

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.40

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.8%
  • 0112.7%
  • 0010.0%
  • 109.0%
  • 128.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession59%
48%Territory42%
12%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Celta Vigo, 4 for Atlético Madrid.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.