LaLiga · Matchweek 16
Villarreal
VIL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Villarreal55%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano20%
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.94
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession60%
49%Territory44%
16%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.09
4.6%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Villarreal, 3 for Rayo Vallecano. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Villarreal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.