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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 16

Real Madrid

RMA

Osasuna

OSA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid63%
Draw21%
Osasuna15%

Expected goals

2.02 – 0.91

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.4%
  • 2–010.9%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 1–19.8%
  • 3–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession50%
37%Territory31%
5%From set plays51%
0.17Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness9.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Madrid, 2 for Osasuna. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.