LaLiga · Matchweek 16
Real Madrid
RMA
Osasuna
OSA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Madrid75%
Draw16%
Osasuna9%
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.81
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.6%
- 1–09.7%
- 3–09.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession47%
46%Territory35%
19%From set plays28%
0.15Chance quality0.16
4.8%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Real Madrid, 4 for Osasuna.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Osasuna
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.