LaLiga · Matchweek 16
Málaga
MLA
Barcelona
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Málaga11%
Draw17%
Barcelona72%
Expected goals
0.96 – 2.55
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–38.0%
- 1–38.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Barcelona will have the ball; Málaga will not mind.
50%Possession72%
37%Territory53%
39%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.18
4.4%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Málaga, 4 for Barcelona.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.