LaLiga · Matchweek 16
Málaga
MLA
Barcelona
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Málaga11%
Draw17%
Barcelona72%
Expected goals
0.94 – 2.50
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–37.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Barcelona will have the ball; Málaga will not mind.
45%Possession69%
36%Territory52%
6%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.16
3.5%Directness2.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Málaga, 3 for Barcelona. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.