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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 15

Villarreal

VIL

Real Sociedad

RSO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Villarreal53%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad22%

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.11

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 0–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

61%Possession60%
49%Territory40%
16%From set plays15%
0.09Chance quality0.11
4.6%Directness3.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Villarreal, 3 for Real Sociedad. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.