LaLiga · Matchweek 15
Sevilla
SEV
Málaga
MLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sevilla53%
Draw28%
Málaga20%
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.83
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession50%
48%Territory37%
41%From set plays39%
0.07Chance quality0.09
7.7%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Sevilla, 4 for Málaga.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.