LaLiga · Matchweek 15
Sevilla
SEV
Málaga
MLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sevilla53%
Draw26%
Málaga21%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.98
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession45%
41%Territory36%
20%From set plays6%
0.08Chance quality0.09
6.3%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Sevilla, 3 for Málaga. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.