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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 15

Barcelona

BAR

Celta Vigo

CEL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Barcelona67%
Draw19%
Celta Vigo14%

Expected goals

2.22 – 0.94

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–010.5%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–18.8%
  • 3–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barcelona will have the ball; Celta Vigo will not mind.

72%Possession55%
53%Territory48%
16%From set plays12%
0.18Chance quality0.08
2.8%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Barcelona, 4 for Celta Vigo.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.