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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 15

Deportivo Alavés

DEP

Espanyol

ESP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Deportivo Alavés41%
Draw29%
Espanyol30%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.14

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 1–011.6%
  • 0–19.5%
  • 0–09.5%
  • 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

40%Possession47%
39%Territory36%
26%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.12
8.5%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Deportivo Alavés, 4 for Espanyol.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.