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LaLiga · Matchweek 14

Elche

ELC

Atlético Madrid

ATM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Elche20%
Draw23%
Atlético Madrid57%

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.91

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.4%
  • 0110.2%
  • 1210.0%
  • 029.1%
  • 136.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession59%
40%Territory42%
32%From set plays19%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Elche, 4 for Atlético Madrid.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.