LaLiga · Matchweek 13
Real Madrid
RMA
Celta Vigo
CEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Madrid69%
Draw19%
Celta Vigo12%
Expected goals
2.17 – 0.81
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.0%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession55%
46%Territory48%
19%From set plays12%
0.15Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Real Madrid, 4 for Celta Vigo.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.