LaLiga · Matchweek 13
Real Madrid
RMA
Celta Vigo
CEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Madrid66%
Draw21%
Celta Vigo12%
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.75
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession46%
37%Territory36%
5%From set plays15%
0.17Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Madrid, 3 for Celta Vigo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.