LaLiga · Matchweek 13
Osasuna
OSA
Málaga
MLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Osasuna62%
Draw23%
Málaga15%
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.80
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
50%Possession45%
31%Territory36%
51%From set plays6%
0.12Chance quality0.09
9.7%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Osasuna, 3 for Málaga. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.