LaLiga · Matchweek 13
Osasuna
OSA
Málaga
MLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Osasuna52%
Draw26%
Málaga22%
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.96
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession50%
35%Territory37%
28%From set plays39%
0.16Chance quality0.09
8.5%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Osasuna, 4 for Málaga.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.