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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 13

Barcelona

BAR

Villarreal

VIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Barcelona52%
Draw24%
Villarreal23%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.18

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 2–08.1%
  • 1–26.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barcelona will have the ball; Villarreal will not mind.

69%Possession61%
52%Territory49%
18%From set plays16%
0.16Chance quality0.09
2.1%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barcelona, 3 for Villarreal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.