LaLiga · Matchweek 13
Barcelona
BAR
Villarreal
VIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barcelona61%
Draw20%
Villarreal20%
Expected goals
2.39 – 1.36
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–06.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
72%Possession66%
53%Territory53%
16%From set plays29%
0.18Chance quality0.13
2.8%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Barcelona, 4 for Villarreal.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.