LaLiga · Matchweek 12
Valencia
VAL
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Valencia17%
Draw24%
Real Madrid60%
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.81
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.9%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Real Madrid will have the ball; Valencia will not mind.
36%Possession52%
32%Territory37%
23%From set plays5%
0.13Chance quality0.17
6.4%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Valencia, 3 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.