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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 12

Valencia

VAL

Real Madrid

RMA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Valencia14%
Draw20%
Real Madrid66%

Expected goals

0.89 – 2.11

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–211.2%
  • 0–111.1%
  • 1–29.9%
  • 1–19.3%
  • 0–37.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession54%
31%Territory46%
13%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.15
4.8%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Valencia, 4 for Real Madrid.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.