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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 12

Real Sociedad

RSO

Rayo Vallecano

RAY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Sociedad48%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano28%

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.37

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.4%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.0%
  • 1–26.8%
  • 2–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

60%Possession60%
40%Territory44%
15%From set plays12%
0.11Chance quality0.09
3.4%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Sociedad, 3 for Rayo Vallecano. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.