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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 11

Elche

ELC

Valencia

VAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Elche41%
Draw28%
Valencia32%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.23

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Elche get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession48%
40%Territory31%
32%From set plays13%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Elche, 4 for Valencia.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.