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LaLiga · Matchweek 10

Rayo Vallecano

RAY

Elche

ELC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rayo Vallecano52%
Draw24%
Elche24%

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.21

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.7%
  • 219.7%
  • 109.3%
  • 207.8%
  • 126.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession52%
36%Territory40%
20%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rayo Vallecano, 4 for Elche.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.