LaLiga · Matchweek 10
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Elche
ELC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rayo Vallecano52%
Draw24%
Elche24%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.21
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession52%
36%Territory40%
20%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rayo Vallecano, 4 for Elche.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.