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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 10

Barcelona

BAR

Real Madrid

RMA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Barcelona40%
Draw23%
Real Madrid37%

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.77

Over 2.5

68%

Both to score

70%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.2%
  • 2–18.1%
  • 1–27.7%
  • 2–27.3%
  • 1–05.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barcelona will have the ball; Real Madrid will not mind.

72%Possession54%
53%Territory46%
16%From set plays19%
0.18Chance quality0.15
2.8%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Barcelona, 4 for Real Madrid.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.