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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 9

Real Madrid

RMA

Sevilla

SEV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid70%
Draw19%
Sevilla11%

Expected goals

2.15 – 0.77

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–012.6%
  • 1–012.2%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–18.8%
  • 3–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Real Madrid will have the ball; Sevilla will not mind.

54%Possession45%
46%Territory48%
19%From set plays41%
0.15Chance quality0.07
4.8%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Real Madrid, 4 for Sevilla.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.