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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 9

Osasuna

OSA

Racing Santander

RAC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Osasuna50%
Draw25%
Racing Santander25%

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.22

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession45%
35%Territory30%
28%From set plays20%
0.16Chance quality0.19
8.5%Directness3.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Osasuna, 4 for Racing Santander.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.