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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 8

Real Madrid

RMA

Villarreal

VIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid64%
Draw20%
Villarreal17%

Expected goals

2.33 – 1.16

Over 2.5

67%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–08.4%
  • 1–18.3%
  • 1–07.6%
  • 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Villarreal will have the ball; Real Madrid will not mind.

54%Possession66%
46%Territory53%
19%From set plays29%
0.15Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Real Madrid, 4 for Villarreal.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.