LaLiga · Matchweek 7
Atlético Madrid
ATM
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético Madrid32%
Draw26%
Real Madrid43%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.62
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession54%
42%Territory46%
19%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.15
5.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Atlético Madrid, 4 for Real Madrid.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.